In late February 2026, US and Israeli military strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory attacks on major oil infrastructure across the Middle East. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes daily.
This created what analysts have called the "largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets". Brent crude oil prices spiked from around US$75 to almost US$120 per barrel before settling near US$107.
Australia is particularly vulnerable because we import over 80% of our fuel and have only 2 operating refineries (down from 8 in 2005). Our fuel reserves sit well below the IEA's recommended 90 days of net imports.
The Australian Government has released 800 million litres from domestic reserves and granted the ACCC emergency powers to coordinate supply. However, experts warn that if the disruption continues beyond mid-April, more severe measures may be needed.